Zambian 2013 Budget Reviewed by Kampamba Shula

On 12 October 2012, the Minister of Finance, Hon. Alexander Bwalya Chikwanda, MP, announced the 2013 National Budget. Budget highlights and taxation and other changes as contained in the Budget speech and the Zambia Revenue Authority (“ZRA”) publication.

INDECO (IDC): Past Problems and Opportunities Analysed by Kampamba Shula

INDECO (IDC): Past Problems and Opportunities Analysed

Critical Review of IMF 2013 Zambia ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION report by Kampamba Shula

Debt management is still on track The agreed norm is that for internal borrowing the threshold is 25 per cent of GDP but our debt stands at K17 billion, which is 15 per cent of GDP and for external borrowing, the threshold is 40 per cent and our debt is US$3.1 billion which is 14 per cent of GDP, so we are far below the agreed norms. So even in the long term , Zambia is still on track.

US Economy 2014 First Quarter Analysis and Outlook by Kampamba Shula

New data shows the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, keeping pace with shifting expectations but down sharply from the prior already disappointing estimate.

Zambia Debt Analysis

Some might say that Zambia should not borrow externally and even as sincere as they may be they are wrong. When the Government borrows locally “Crowing out” happens.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

The Cure Of Poverty (Part 1) Complied By Kampamba Shula



Herbert E. Meyer says in his book "The Cure of Poverty" That the Free Market is the cure of poverty.That’s because According to Meyer the Free Market is the only environment in which entrepreneurs can flourish.  And it’s the entrepreneurs – and only the entrepreneurs -- who create the jobs that lift us all out of poverty.
Let’s begin at the beginning:

The dictionary defines entrepreneur as “a person who organizes and manages a business undertaking, assuming the risk for the sake of the profit.”   When we think of entrepreneurs, we tend to think of famous people like Bill Gates of Microsoft, or Apple’s Steve Jobs.  But that nice man who lives down the street, and who opened a new auto repair shop last month, is also an entrepreneur.  So is the woman who stopped by your house yesterday to see if you might be interested in buying some of those fancy cookies she’s baked, or that couple you hired last month to paint your house.  Farmers are entrepreneurs, and so are dentists.  So’s the kid next door who mows your lawn.  In short, anyone who launches any kind of business whatsoever – who sells goods or services and who doesn’t have an income until someone purchases these goods or services – is an entrepreneurb (Herbert E. Meyer,Cure Of Poverty).

Why do some countries have entrepreneurs while others don’t?  It’s for the same reason there’s life here on Earth and none on the moon:  Life requires a specific atmosphere to support it – nitrogen, oxygen, traces of argon and carbon dioxide with some water vapor.  We have that kind of atmosphere here on Earth; the moon doesn’t (Herbert E. Meyer,Cure Of Poverty).

The “atmosphere” that entrepreneurs require to survive and flourish is called the Free Market.  The Free Market is comprised of property rights, the rule of law, a modest level of taxation, competent regulation, and a government that protects its citizens by assuring the country’s defense while doing the everyday things a government is supposed to do, such as building roads and bridges, operating schools, and delivering the mail (Herbert E. Meyer,Cure Of Poverty).

Because the Free-Market “atmosphere” that entrepreneurs require to survive and flourish is political and economic – rather than chemical, like the Earth’s atmosphere – there’s no one formula that any competent technician can look up in a textbook and then follow.  Maintaining this “atmosphere” – monitoring it constantly and making the adjustments needed to sustain it as political and economic conditions change -- is as much an art as a science.  It takes a combination of technical knowledge, hard work, vision, and that unquantifiable “gut feel” for what to do and when to do it (Herbert E. Meyer,Cure Of Poverty).

I wish to agree with Mr Meyer in that the environment or atmosphere in which the freemarket flourishes promotes entreprenuership.But The free market is flawed,because the premise it is based on is also flawed.The free market will not produce goods which have no exclusivity (goods whose benefit can be enjoyed by people who havent paid directly for it e.g roads,streetlights).Yet many would say that is the job of Government and I would understand their line of reasoning.

But Economics is fundamentally flawed.It is based on the premise or assumption that wants are unlimited and resources are scarce.This is flawed because it bases economics on "WANTS" but when we talk of poverty, people lack basic "NEEDS" which are limited.The free market works in the same way, it provides products for peoples "wants" such as luxury goods yet it wont produce clothes(basic need) for people who cant afford to pay them immediately.This applies to medicines as well,a key factor for making drugs is the property rights protection.If a pharmacuetical spends money on making a new drug,it would not want to give it for free because of the costs of making it,which is only logical  but flawed when there are people who need that drug but are  unable to pay for it immediately.

 "Take one reflective look at the planet and you easily come to terms with the extravagant abundance of creation. From the abundance of sunlight to that of mineral resources in the earth, you realize that whereas people might be poor, the planet is not poor! The universe is in fact teeming and saturated with abundance of resources and provisions. This goes to show that the Creator never meant for man to be poor." (Rev Wildfire D-Favour,The Cure Of Poverty).

Poverty is much deeper than the absence of cash. As a matter of fact, the chronic lack of money is just one of the various manifestations of poverty. Poverty is essentially the inability to realize the fullness of one’s potentials in time and space  (Rev Wildfire D-Favour,The Cure Of Poverty).

What we need in Africa and the rest of the world where people are suffering, is not more financial aid from rich donor countries, but rather a greater capacity for self-determination; a greater level of personal responsibility (Rev Wildfire D-Favour,The Cure Of Poverty).

I must also appreciate Rev Wildfire D-Favour's view on the Cure Of Poverty.Though my only disagreement is that he chooses to define poverty as a spiritual problem.His answers for the solution seem like vague motivational quotes for an individual.Never the less his views are well apreciated.

What I wish to attempt to do,though rather pragmatically is to find the cure for poverty in more practical terms.For I strongly believe that the cure for poverty can be found through academic research and empirical evidence.

This is part of a series I will be running on the cure of poverty..stay tuned for the next edition.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Kwacha Dollar depreciation/appreciation REVIEW



Daily Mail Article By NANCY MWAPE and KALONDE NYATI
THE Kwacha is expected to appreciate following the resolving of the debt crisis in Europe, Bank of Zambia (BoZ), financial markets reports and statistics manager Douglas Kalamatila says.
And the local unit yesterday posted a marginal gain and was poised to close the day at about K5,050 against the United States dollar (US$) after opening around K5,100, according to the Standard Chartered Bank newsletter.
Mr Kalamatila, who however, could not ascertain the expected levels of the Kwacha against the US dollar said the Central Bank is worried about the levels of the Kwacha volatility adding that from January to March 2012, close to US$132 million was provided to support liquidity in the market.
In an interview, Mr Kalamatila said since the beginning of the year, the Kwacha has depreciated against the US dollar from K5,100 to K5,300 as a result of problems in the Eurozone.
“This has affected the local currency. It is not just the local currency which has been affected in terms of depreciation. Most commodity currencies have depreciated against the US dollar,” he said.
Mr Kalamatila said the debt crisis in the Eurozone has resulted in investors being risk averse, moving out of emerging countries’ assets to safe havens such as treasury securities of the US and developed countries’ economies which has affected the local currency.
He cited demand and supply as some of the factors that affect the exchange rates.
“If you look at the period in which the local currency has been depreciating, apparently commercial banks have been net purchases of foreign exchange, meaning that, there has been more supply than demand of the foreign exchange. Ordinary if it was just these two factors taken into account one would have seen the local currency appreciating,” he said.
Zam-Africa Assessment by Kampamba Shula

I cannot help but agree totally with Mr Kalamatila's assessment.It provides the most thorough explanatiuon as to why the kwacha had been depreciating even thumping my own assumptions.He says debt crisis in the Eurozone has resulted in investors being risk averse, moving out of emerging countries’ assets to safe havens such as treasury securities of the US and developed countries’ economies which has affected the local currency.
This has affected the local currency. It is not just the local currency which has been affected in terms of depreciation. Most commodity currencies have depreciated against the US dollar.

Dollar commodity graph research

We shall use the Aussie dollar as a commodities proxy.Look at the graph below.

The Aussie economy is tied heavily to China through commodity trade. As the Chinese economy slows, or at least isn't accelerating as fast, the Aussie will weaken. In the above chart, the price action is carrying momentum down through the trend line, signifying USD appreciation.

AUDUSD 1-minute Chart: May 2, 2012

Following the data release, the greenback strengthened against the higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars. The US dollar advanced as much as 16 pips against the Aussie in the first few minutes as the slump in factory orders pared risk appetite and sent investors back towards the safe haven currency.

The reason for the Kwacha's depreciation is a mixture of macro economic factors partly stemming from the Euro debt crisis and partly from the greenbacks gains against commodity currencies.
The reason I say this is because U.S Treasuries are the safest haven for global money  even better than gold.They are easy to sell once a person needs liquidity and offer the safest return in the world.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Stock Review African explosives ltd (AELZ:Lusaka)



Who is African Explosives Limited?
AEL Zambia Plc engages in the production and supply of commercial explosives and initiating systems; and the provision of blasting services for mining, querying, and construction markets in central Africa. The company offers bulk emulsion explosives for surface and underground use, shock tube detonating systems, and electronic detonators. It primarily serves the mining and quarrying customers in the Republic of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, western Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The company was founded in 1963 and is based in Mufulira, the Republic of Zambia. AEL Zambia Plc is a subsidiary of AECI Ltd.

Kitwe Mufulira Road
PO Box 40092
Mufulira,
Zambia
Phone: 260 996 990 945
Fax: 260 2 412 749
www.explosives.co.za
AELZ trades  at K3600 right now but used to trade at about K1000 in 2006.This is a clear increase in share price value of 360%.
The company has a strong management with an earnings per share of K141(2011).
It had a profit after tax of K 2885 MILLION(2011).
To confirm my derivations look at the pdf file below

February stock exchange summary

see how its share price has trended since 2006 and countercheck with its trading price today.

Lusaka Stock exchange update


  • Thursday 10th May, 2012
  • DAILY COMMENTARY FOR WEDNESDAY 09th MAY,2012

    The index closed at 3,911.40 points down by 0.01 points compared to yesterdays close of 3,911.69. A total of 2,656,416 shares were transacted in 17 trades worth K440 million.The SCZ price was diluted today following the bonus issue hence the K75.04 price drop. A total of 638,820,000,000 shares were added to the existing shares bringing the total shares in issue to 663,390,000,000.Price movements were also recorded in ZANACO - K100.00 and ZSUG - (K9.00). Trading activity was also recorded inBATZ,PUMA and CEC. AELZ,CEC and ZSUG.The dual listed companies as at 15:00hrs (Zambian time) today traded at : FQMZ - 18.86 C$, SHOPRITE - 13,225 SACents, ZAMBEEF - 37.88 Pence, ZCCM-IH - 1.86 Euros.
  • Wednesday, May 9, 2012

    Trade surplus recorded,Inflation up to 6.5%




    Zambia recorded a trade surplus valued at K79.6 Billion in March 2012, representing a nominal increase of about 68.1 percent from K47.4 Billion recorded in February 2012. This means that the country exported more in March 2012 than it imported, in nominal terms.

    Since January 2011 the country has had monthly trade surpluses with the highest valued at K1,484.5 Billion recorded in January 2011 and the lowest in February 2012, valued at K47.4 Billion.

    The annual rate of inflation derived from 2011 and April 2012. The increase is attributed to increases in the prices of non-food products. On average, prices increased by 0.7 percent between Marchthe revised all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was recorded at 6.5 percent in April 2012, from 6.4 percent in March 2012. This means that on average prices increased by 6.5 percent between April 2012.
    2012 and April 2012.

    Between March 2012 and April 2012, the annual rate of inflation increased for Housing, water and electricity; Furniture and household equipment; Education; Restaurant and hotels; and Miscellaneous
    goods and services. The annual rate of inflation decreased for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco; Clothing and footwear; Health; Transport; and Recreation and culture. The annual rates of inflation remained unchanged for Food and non-alcoholic beverages and communication.

    The annual food inflation rate remained unchanged from March 2012 to April2012 at 6.4 percent.
    You can download the full report from the CSO website at the link below.


    The main info to take from here is that the inflation rate remains quite low compared to the estimated growth rate by governement which stands at 7%.The decrease in infation rate for alcoholic beverages in negligible

    LaFarge share price grows by 350% in 6 yrs



    Who is Lafarge?

    Lafarge Cement Zambia Plc engages in the manufacture and sale of cement in Zambia. The company was formerly known as Chilanga Cement plc and changed its name to Lafarge Cement Zambia Plc in 2007. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Lusaka, Zambia. Lafarge Cement Zambia Plc is a subsidiary of Lafarge S.A.

    Lafarge is to my knowlegde the only large scale producer of cement in zambia.Given the recent sovereign bond sale and the Zambia governments dedication to creating more infrastructure lafarge is set to be a major beneficiary of such investment.

    Bloomberg business week wrote an article just Lafarge zambia
    BLOOMBERG SNAPSHOT
    I am guessing they had noticed what I just noticed.The Lafarge share price has grown by 350% form 2006 to 2012.
    Take a look for yourself at the pdf file below.
    LUSE FEBRUARY STOCK SUMMARY

    Zanaco share price Diluted

     

     

    Bonus Share Issue

    At the Annual General Meeting of the Company held on 30th March 2012, shareholders approved a Capitalisation Issue (“Bonus Share Issue”) by the Company. This will be an issue of bonus shares to existing shareholders at a ratio of 13 for 2, meaning 13 new additional shares issued for every 2 shares held by shareholders on the shareholder register as at 27th April 2012 the bonus share issue Record Date.

    Purpose of the Bonus Share Issue

    The primary reason for the Bonus Share Issue is to raise the minimum share capital of the bank from ZMK 11.55 billion to ZMK 86.625 billion in compliance with the minimum capital requirements of the Bank of Zambia as announced on 30 January 2012.

    Implications of the Bonus Share Issue

    ZANACO has opted to increase its share capital via a 13 for 2 Bonus Share Issue (13 new shares for every 2 shares held) as at Record Date. The primary effects of the ZANACO Bonus Share Issue transaction are:
    • Increase in the amount of authorised shares from 1,500,000,000 to 10,000,000,000 shares of ZMK 10 par value each;

    • Increase in the number of issued and fully paid up shares from 1,155,000,033 to 8,662,500,248 shares of ZMK 10 par value each;

    • The issue and allotment of 7,507,500,215 new ordinary shares of ZMK 10 par value each to shareholders registered in the books of the company at the close of business on 27th April 2012 on a ratio of 13 new shares for every 2 existing shares held;

    • The value of the bank will not change as the bonus-issue will be a book entry that reduces non distributable reserves (share premium) and increases share capital;

    • No additional capital is raised, hence shareholders’ equity or net book value remains the same;

    • The price per share of ZANACO on the LuSE will be diluted by a factor of 7.5 after the Bonus Share Issue is effected. Therefore the share price of Zanaco shares will be adjusted downwards by dividing the last trade price on 23rd April 2012 by 7.5 and reflecting the new price on the LuSE market effective 30th April 2012.
    Zanaco now trades at about K150 - K160.I still like Zanaco as a bank very much, It has a sense of national pride in it which leverages it form bankruptcy.Warren Buffet is a strong supporter of Bank of America for similar fundamental reasons.Solid managment and a good history of making money and paying out dividends.

    zanaco-plc-summary-trading-activity-report-2011 DOWNLOAD


    MY VIEW IS ZANACO SHARES ARE A BUY RIGHT NOW,I ESTIMATE THEY WILL CLOSE THE YEAR ON A HIGHER NOTE.