Strong Dollar - An Inflated Currency in a Deflated Global Economy by Kampamba Shula

With flexible exchange rates and wide-spread abandonment of capital controls the dollar is largely free to move up or down as market forces dictate
In this framework it is reasonable to infer that any observed weakening or depreciation of the dollar is most likely the result of a reduced demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market, an increased supply of dollars in that market, or some combination of both forces. Similarly, an appreciating, or strong dollar, is the consequence of an increase in the demand for dollars, or a decreased supply of dollars, or both in the foreign exchange markets.
The volume and speed of international asset transactions far exceed those of goods transactions. This means that at any point in time it is most likely that the relative demand for assets here and abroad will be the dominant force in the foreign exchange market, transmitting the essential energy that drives movement in the exchange rate for the dollar and other widely traded currencies.
Expectations about the future path of the exchange rate itself will figure prominently in the investor’s calculation of what she will actually earn from an investment denominated in another currency.  Even a high nominal return would not be attractive if one expects the denominating currency to depreciate at a similar or greater rate and erase all economic gain.  On the other hand, if the exchange rate is expected to appreciate the realized gain would be greater than what the nominal interest rate alone would indicate and the asset looks more attractive.
There is also likely to be a significant safe-haven effect behind some capital flows.  This is really just another manifestation of the balancing of risk and reward by foreign investors. Some investors may be willing to give up a significant amount of return if an economy offers them a particularly low risk repository for their funds. In recent decades the United States, with a long history of stable government, steady economic growth, and large and efficient financial markets can be expected to draw foreign capital for this reason.
The greenback is trading at a 12-year high against the euro and 8-year high versus the Japanese yen. This strength is, in many respects, a sign that the economy in the United States is much healthier than Europe, Japan and many other parts of the world. The strengthening of the USD in recent times has caused some element of volatility in the currency markets across the globe and almost all emerging markets' currencies have been affected on this score as they have tended to depreciate.
The US Federal Reserve has withdrawn the QE completely on the premise that the economy is picking up and that unemployment levels are low and within acceptable limits. This indicates that the economy is going to record a healthy growth rate from 2015 onwards. Also, interest rates are expected to increase in mid-2015 with the Fed tracking the inflation numbers.
Quantitative easing meanwhile continues to be dominating the economies of Japan and the euro region with China is also showing signs of easing rates. Any kind of affirmative action to revive an economy is taken to mean a weak economy and by implication a weak currency. This has propped up the USD which appears to be the strongest currency today.
Diverging central bank policy has created a perfect launch pad for the dollar to move higher, particularly against the euro. The Fed is expected to push interest rates higher in the next several months, while the European Central Bank embarked on a quantitative easing bond buying program recently. Some analysts expect the Fed to hike rates in September. The currency-weakening moves by the SNB, ECB and others across the globe have spurred talk about a renewed currency war as countries adopt a beggar-thyneighbor policy to spur growth.
Generally, the financial health of a country, as measured by deficits and debt and forecasts of deficits and debt accumulation, plays an important role in driving the relative currency valuation of a particular country. Countries that have chronic deficits and growing debt burdens ultimately end up in a weaker position in the foreign exchange markets, albeit sometimes with considerable lag times.
The present strength of the dollar is temporary and can also be seen as the penultimate stop in a flight to safety. When the next financial crisis unfolds as it surely will gold, precious metals and even structured alternatives like bitcoin are likely to be the next and last stop.
Predicting the path of the dollar is always a problematic endeavor.  Economic fundamentals predict that the dollars near-term path will broadly reflect the resolution by international investors of an ongoing balancing of risk and return.
Economic growth in the United States in 2014 showed signs of recovery and this may have translated into an increase of the expected return on dollar assets. In addition, the Fed is expected in mid-2015 to increase short-term interest rates. In contrast, both the euro area and Japan have demonstrated that they have firmly established economic contractions underway, and they have currencies that are not expected to appreciate. These changes suggest that the expected yield advantage of dollar assets has been strengthened. If so, this presents foreign investors, with an already strong need to diversify into dollar assets of an attractive sustained and safe rate of return. This change in incentives could be sufficient to induce a significant move away from yen and euro assets.
The US dollar is expected to appreciate over the near term against major convertibles. The reason for this is mostly down to a global monetary policy divergence between the U.S and the rest of the world. With the EU and Japan fighting deflation using QE, they are inadvertently propping up the Dollar.
This appreciation of the Dollar though due in a small part to stronger US growth is at the most part an inflated effect of deflated global economy. A disorderly adjustment is probable, but not inevitable.

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China Q1 Economic analysis and Outlook by Kampamba Shula

China First Quarter Economy Analysis

Summary

The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014 versus a year earlier, and was up 1.4 percent from the previous quarter. This slower growth was a continuation of the slowdown that has afflicted China during the past year, although growth remained in a range that the government has targeted. The big question is whether China can simultaneously sustain growth while reducing its dependence on credit expansion.

China’s GDP grew by 7.4 percent for the first quarter of 2014, lower than the government target of 7.5 percent, but ahead of most analyst estimates

• First quarter Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in positive territory at 50.3, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.4 percent (versus the government’s 3.5 percent target for the year)

• ODI in non-financial sector decreased by 16.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, but a number of factors should propel total Chinese ODI for 2014 above levels reached in 2013

• Inbound FDI increased by 5.5 percent year-on-year, as China’s services industry buoyed investment growth

The Chinese economy grew by 1.4% this quarter.

Since the start of the year, most economic indicators have pointed to a pronounced slowdown in China, the fastest growing major economy for more than a decade and a powerful stabilizing force in the wake of the global financial crisis (Anderlini, 2014).

China's economy grew 7.4 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed recently.The NBS said that preliminary data showed the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 12.8213 trillion yuan ($2.08 trillion) in the first quarter (China Daily, 2014).The figures suggest growth in the world's second-largest economy in the beginning of year 2014 was stable and that the economy was generally in good health, as Chinese authorities promoted reforms, innovation, restructuring and improvement of people's well-being, according to the NBS.

The first-quarter growth exceeded market estimates of 7.3 percent.

However, it slowed compared to the 7.7-percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, and marked the lowest quarterly growth level since the third quarter of 2012. But even so, the figure still far outperformed the 6.6-percent growth in the first quarter of 2009, when the global financial crisis wreaked havoc.During the same period, fixed asset investment growth gained 17.6 percent; retail sales expanded 12 percent, while the average per-capita disposable income of both urban and rural residents grew 8.6 percent year on year (China Daily, 2014).

The economic slowdown came amid a generally mild inflation rate in the first quarter, with the consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rising 2.4 percent in March.Earlier data also showed the country's exports and imports declined 1 percent year on year to $965.88 billion in the first quarter while power consumption rose 5.4 percent year on year, though the March figure picked up steam and rose 7.2 percent.

In China, imports and exports have contracted in the first three months in spite of predictions at the start of the year that stronger US and European demand would prop up slowing Chinese growth.

The services sector, which includes retail, made up 49 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, 4.1 percentage points more than the industrial sector.Growth in retail bodes well for employment, a top government priority, as services are now the biggest employer in China (Rose, 2014).

As most countries tumbled into recession following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008 China launched a massive state-led building boom that propped up domestic growth and global demand, particularly for commodities.But there is increasing evidence that China’s credit-fuelled, investment-heavy growth model has now reached its limits.There are worrying signs of overbuilding and oversupply in the Chinese real estate market, with sales volumes and prices having already collapsed in many smaller cities.Real estate construction accounted for as much as 16 per cent of GDP last year, a level approaching that in Ireland or Spain before their housing bubbles burst.A widespread property market crash would be devastating for Chinese investment, which accounts for an unprecedented high level of about half of GDP (Anderlini, 2014).

Beijing has announced some modest measures, such as tax cuts for small firms and speeding up investment in railways, to try to steady growth near its target of 7.5 percent without disrupting plans to restructure the economy or worsening problems of overcapacity and debt.

Although the official GDP growth figure for 2014 will likely be around 7.5 per cent, all of the economic momentum points downward. Export growth will probably be very modest, because the US economic recovery has been weaker than expected and the Chinese export sector is undergoing major restructuring due to a rapidly rising cost base. The upward trend in consumption should continue as rapid wage growth lifts household income, but public consumption may remain soft as a result of the government’s anti-corruption drive (Huang, 2014).

Fixed asset investment is still the main area in which the government acts to stabilise growth. But weakening market conditions in the property sector mean the outlook is not encouraging. Manufacturing investment should be relatively stable given the outlook for exports and consumption. The central government may increase infrastructure investment if the economy weakens again, but there is little room for local government action in this area because of a decline in revenue from land sales and the tightening in financing conditions for local government investment vehicles (LGIVs). Recently, the central government started an experiment allowing ten provincial governments to issue local government bonds (Huang, 2014).

China PMI

China’s manufacturing sector continues to decline, at least according to the latest PMI for manufacturing from Markit.1 The index moved from 48.0 in March to 48.1 in April. A reading below 50.0 means declining activity, so the index’s increase means that activity continued to decline, but at a slightly slower pace. This was the fourth consecutive month of decline. Separately, a Chinese government PMI for manufacturing indicates very modest manufacturing growth in April. The index was 50.4, up from 50.3 in March. The government index, separate from the better-known one issued by Markit, is heavily weighted toward state-owned companies. This report still suggests considerable weakness in the manufacturing sector. The subindex for export orders was especially weak at 49.1, indicating a decline in such orders. Some investors are hoping for more stimulatory measures by the Chinese central bank, such as a cut in the reserve ratio for banks. Yet boosting credit market activity is also risky because there may already be too much bad debt in the system and there is certainly excess capacity in industry. A more sustainable way to fix the economy would be to stimulate consumer spending rather than debt-fueled fixed asset investment.

Shadow Banking

It appears that, despite government efforts to the contrary, credit in the non-bank shadow banking system continues to rise rapidly. The government reports that, in the first quarter, trust company assets were up 8 percent from a year earlier. The country’s trust companies now have assets of 11.7 trillion Chinese yuan, or $1.9 trillion—a record high. The average return on trust assets has declined.

Recall that trust companies have been established to circumvent restrictions on formal banking. The trusts lend money to private enterprises (including property investors). They raise money by selling trust products to private investors, usually offering a return far higher than is available through formal banks. The trusts are often informally backed by banks. The problem is that trusts have loaned money for many projects that are not expected to generate positive returns. Increasingly, trusts could face trouble meeting their obligations and may require help from banks. Banks, in turn, could find themselves in trouble. Thus further growth of this shadow banking activity is worrisome. Although it contributes to economic growth in the short term, it creates more stress on the financial system in the longer run. It is thus not a sustainable model for future economic growth.

Size and Outlook

For some time, we’ve known that China’s economy would eventually overtake that of the United States. Most estimates had pointed to the later years of this decade. Yet now the World Bank estimates that China’s GDP will overtake that of the United States this year.

Two questions emerge: First, how is this determined? Second, does it even matter?

First, for the purposes of this exercise, the World Bank does not measure the size of China’s GDP at current exchange rates. If this were to be done, the US economy would still be far larger than that of China. Rather, the World Bank uses a “purchasing power parity” (PPP) exchange rate. That is, it converts China’s local-currency GDP to US dollars using an exchange rate that reflects the true purchasing power of the currency. How is this done? The World Bank takes a large basket of goods and services for the United States and determines the dollar price of this basket. Then it takes a similar basket in China and determines its renminbi price. The ratio of the renminbi price to the dollar price of this basket determines the PPP exchange rate. For example, if the US basket costs $100 and the Chinese basket costs 350 yuan, then the exchange rate is 350/100, or 3.5 yuan to the dollar—which is, in fact, roughly the World Bank’s estimate of the PPP exchange rate. Keep in mind that the current market exchange rate is roughly 6.2 yuan per dollar. The World Bank’s new figures on GDP are based on new estimates of the composition and price of that basket.

Second, does this matter? Not really. Clearly China has many residents, and its economy has grown very rapidly in recent years. The fact that it is now the world’s largest economy simply means that it generates enough goods and services to match the purchasing power of the United States. Yet China has four times as many people as the United States, so its per capita output is thus one-quarter that of the United States. In other words, it has a long way to go to match the living standards of affluent countries. Moreover, for a variety of reasons, China’s growth is likely to slow down in the future. Also, keep in mind that, at current exchange rates, the US economy is still far larger than that of China. In terms of China’s participation in the global economy, such as purchasing commodities and high-technology equipment from other countries, China’s purchasing power still lags considerably. The measure of GDP using a PPP exchange rate largely reflects the low prices of domestic services in China. For example, the prices of haircuts, restaurant meals, and health services are very low in China, thus effectively increasing the true purchasing power of a Chinese wage. This is one of the principal reasons for China being the “world’s largest” economy. From that perspective, the label is not very meaningful (Kalish, 2014).

Conclusion

There is increasing evidence that China’s credit-fueled, investment-heavy growth model has now reached its limits.There are worrying signs of overbuilding and oversupply in the Chinese real estate market, with sales volumes and prices having already collapsed in many smaller cities.Real estate construction accounted for as much as 16 per cent of GDP last year, a level indicating a possible housing bubbles about to burst.A widespread property market crash would be devastating for Chinese investment, which accounts for an unprecedented high level of about half of GDP. The manufacturing sectors still remains frail.Some investors are hoping for more stimulatory measures by the Chinese central bank, such as a cut in the reserve ratio for banks. Yet boosting credit market activity is also risky because there may already be too much bad debt in the system and there is certainly excess capacity in industry as evidenced by the shadow banks. A more sustainable way to fix the economy would be to stimulate consumer spending rather than debt-fueled fixed asset investment.Thus further growth of the shadow banking activity is worrisome. Although it contributes to economic growth in the short term, it creates more stress on the financial system in the longer run. It is thus a short term effective method but not a sustainable model for future economic growth.As the World Bank estimates that China’s GDP will overtake that of the United States this year this statistic has to be put in context as it is calculated using purchasing power of parity which underscores suggestions that China's renminbi is still undervalued. China still lags in terms of per capita income as well as standard of living but this should not discredit the Chinese government as its sound economic management polices cushioning the Chinese economy for a safe landing have proved bold in uncharted territory. We cannot take away from what is apparently clear to be an unprecedented economic growth management model. It may have it flaws but overall it is still a decent role model for developing nations.

Some Economist projections estimate China's economy will grow by 7.4% in 2014 just a tenth of a percentage point below the Chinese government projection of 7.5%. I project a growth of 7.6% on the anticipation of strong domestic consumption as Beijing might stimulate the economy by cutting reserve ratios to get an inflation rate much closer to its yearly target.

References

Anderlini, J. (2014, April 16). Slowing growth adds to China stimulus pressure. Retrieved June 17, 2014, from Financial times: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea52d1c6-c507-11e3-8dd4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz34uINUyuX

China Daily. (2014, April 16). China's first quarter GDP grows 7.4%. Retrieved June 17, 2014, from China Daily: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/chinadata/2014-04/16/content_17437546.htm

Huang, Y. (2014, June 15). Where will the Chinese economy land? Retrieved June 17, 2014, from East Asia Forum: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/06/15/where-will-the-chinese-economy-land/

Kalish, I. (2014, May 21). Asia Pacific Economic Outlook, June 2014: China. Retrieved June 17, 2014, from Dupress: http://dupress.com/articles/asia-pacific-economic-outlook-june-2014-china-2/

Rose, A. (2014, April 16). China economic growth slows to 18-month low in first-quarter. Retrieved June 17, 2014, from Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBREA3F04J20140416

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China's Economy First Quarter Analysis by Kampamba Shula

China's economic recovery unexpectedly stumbled in the first three months of 2013 with slowing factory output and investment spending forcing analysts to start slashing full-year forecasts despite official insistence that the outlook was favorable.

Growth in GDP dropped to 7.7% year-on-year, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. That’s below the consensus forecast of 8% growth from a Wall Street Journal survey of economists, and raises fears that the recovery at the end of last year is already losing steam.

The market remains far ahead of the government’s estimates, which still has Chinese GDP growth hovering closer to 7.5% for the next couple of years (Rapoza, 2013).

The pace of sequential growth continued to be the subject of controversy. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics data, the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate came in at 6.6%, down from 8.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012. But investment bank economists continued to publish their own calculations. Louis Kuijs, China economist at RBS, put sequential growth at 6.1%, down from 9.5% at the end of 2012 (Orlik, 2013).

One of the few bright spots in the data: evidence that the rebalancing of China’s economy is underway. Domestic consumption contributed 4.3 percentage points to China’s growth in the first quarter, compared to a 2.3 percentage point contribution from investment, said National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun. “Now we can say consumption has become the major driver of growth,” he said. Seasonal effects might also be at work – the first quarter is typically strong for consumption.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco took some of the fun out of looking at China’s alternative indicators, concluding that they told roughly the same story as the official data . But for what it’s worth, new Premier Li Keqiang’s preferred measures of growth – bank loans, electricity consumption, and rail freight — continued to present a less favorable picture. Electricity consumption registered shocking 1.9% year-on-year growth in March.

China’s government wants domestic consumption to do more of the work of driving growth. But retail cash registers in the first quarter showed little signs of ringing faster. Growth in retail sales dipped to 12.6% year-on-year in March, a marked slowdown from 15.2% at the end of 2012.

One possible factor is the government’s crackdown on official banqueting and excess. That’s difficult to quantify, but a sharp deceleration in spending at restaurants – which grew just 8.7% year on year in March – gives the theory some credibility. Century Plaza Hotel, a four-star hotel in the southern export hotspot of Shenzhen, is one that saw feast turn to famine in 2012. Zhang Jing, board secretary, said she saw no improvements in the first quarter. “It’s definitely inseparable from the current economic and policy situation,” she said.

China’s labor markets continued to tell a positive story. The ratio of labor demand to labor supply rose to 1.1 in the first quarter, up from 1.08 at the end of 2012 and a record high. Strong hiring is a sign China’s firms have a positive outlook and are taking on more workers (in Chinese).

Tight labor markets should also mean rising wages, supporting high consumption. But the evidence on wages in the first quarter was mixed. Average pay packets for migrant workers rose at a respectable 12.1% rate year-on-year. But average disposable income for urbanites rose just 6.7% in real terms, down from 9.6% in 2012 and dipping below the growth rate of the economy.

At the start of the year, exports appeared to be a bright spot in the data, with growth touching 25% year-on-year in January. But that moderated to 10% in March, and inconsistencies in the data between China and major trade partners suggested the real growth rate could be even lower.

Reports of surging exports to Hong Kong, at the same time as Hong Kong recorded only modest gains in imports from China, suggested something was amiss – perhaps factories exaggerating sales to claim tax rebates or avoid capital controls.

Li Zhongjian, head of Tungfong Lighter in Zhejiang’s Wenzhou, was feeling the burn, with overseas sales down 33% year-on-year in the first quarter. “The labor cost is a big problem for us, it’s really hard to operate at the moment,” he said.

China’s trade imbalances showed signs of rising again. The trade surplus for the first quarter came in at $43.5 billion, up substantially from $1.1 billion in the same period last year. The latest current account data from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange points in the same direction.

After a revision to the historical data, China’s current account surplus as a share of GDP troughed at 1.9% in 2011, and rose to 2.3% in 2012 (pdf in Chinese). That’s only a small increase, and leaves the current account surplus at a moderate level. But it also supports the argument that the yuan remains some distance from fair value (Orlik, 2013).

The People’s Bank of China was more active in the markets, keeping the yuan within a narrow band against the dollar. Appreciation of China’s currency slowed to an annualized rate of 1.1% in March, down from 3.5% in December. A larger trade surplus combined with a slower rate of yuan appreciation threatened to raise political tensions with the U.S.

A big part of the reason for resilient growth is surging credit. Bank loans and other forms of finance came in at 6.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a record high. Moves by the People’s Bank of China to drain liquidity from the markets from the start of February appear to have had little impact, with a large part of the surge in credit coming in March.

That allayed fears of a sharp downturn. But it raised fears of higher inflation and a burgeoning credit bubble. China’s consumer price index remained muted, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase in March. But with increases in money supply growth hitting a heady 15.7%, and wages also rising fast, price pressure remains a risk.

So far monetary policy has remained essentially on hold, with no change in bench mark interest rates or pronounced attempts to drain liquidity from the financial system. With growth disappointing, it’s difficult to see Beijing making early moves to tighten policy. But in an inflationary environment, the scope to keep the lending taps open to buoy growth is also limited (Rapoza, 2013).

Evidence of a second successive quarter of rising year-on-year growth will further reinforce the view of investors that China's government has successfully engineered a recovery from 2012's 13-year low of 7.8 percent that is gaining traction.

Meanwhile with the annual rate of consumer inflation expected to ease to 2.4 percent from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, the urgency for policymakers to begin tightening monetary conditions at an early stage in the recovery cycle is reduced.

"We estimate GDP grew at a faster year-on-year pace of 8.1 percent in Q1," analysts at China International Capital Corp (CICC) wrote in a note to clients, outlining their calls for the March data cycle.

That is above the 8.0 percent consensus of 19 economists polled by Reuters and is driven largely by expectations of a stronger than anticipated contribution to growth of real estate sales.

CICC analysts calculate that property sales will contribute about 1 percentage point more to growth in Q1 than in Q4 last year, offsetting slowing growth in wholesale, retail and other industries.

Retail sales growth has been curtailed in recent months since the government launched an internal austerity drive at the end of last year, designed to cut down excessive banqueting and gift-giving that is often linked to corruption.

Economists in the Reuters poll expect retail sales to have expanded by 12.5 percent in March, slightly higher than the 12.3 percent rate seen in the combined January-February period, but still around 2-3 percentage points lower than typically seen through 2012.

Fixed asset investment, closely tied to real estate transactions, has seen a gentle upswing since around the middle of last year when China's Communist Party government decided to take action to underpin economic growth hit by faltering demand for the country's exports. Gross exports account for around a third of economic output in China and a drop off in orders as the United States and the European Union - the country's two biggest customers - dealt with their own economic problems was felt through the Chinese factory sector. Fixed asset investment is forecast to have expanded at an annual pace of 21.3 percent year-to-date in March, a whisker higher than the 21.2 percent pace in the first two months of 2013.The downside risks to economic growth, however, are similarly tied to real estate, investment in which was worth 13.8 percent of GDP in 2012 and directly impacts around 40 other business sectors in the economy. Rising real estate prices, alongside rising fixed asset investment, have sparked concerns that home costs could start to spiral out of control and lead the government to declare that a raft of measures to calm frothy prices must be strictly enforced. That has led investors to start fretting that tighter property policies could constrain the overall economy (Reuters, 2013).

That is a significant risk given that construction was the main driving force behind a rise in the fast-growing services sector of the economy in March, according to a survey of purchasing managers. The real estate crackdown was one of the key reasons cited by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in late March when it cut its Q1 annual growth forecast to 7.9 percent from 8.3 percent." At present we see more downside than upside risk to our 7.9 percent year-on-year Q1 forecast," the bank wrote in a note to clients, outlining its March data forecasts.

 The Deduction

Most of China's growth going forward will be from a stronger domestic demand.Construction and real estate are big drivers of this movement.But there is another side to this coin.Banks are lending out money at unprecedented levels which could be creating inflationary pressures but judging from the numbers that should not be a worry.What should however be looked into is a possible credit bubble in the housing market which could lead to housing prices to spiral out of control.

Its true what investors fear that tighter property controls could constrain the economy, but on the other hand loose controls could increase the chances of a bubble, something which neither investors nor the Government want.

Bibliography

Orlik, T. (2013, April 15). China Real time report China’s Economy: The First Quarter. Retrieved April 2013, 16, from Wall Street Journal: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/04/15/chinas-economy-the-first-quarter-2/

Rapoza, K. (2013, April 15). China's Economy Underperforms In First Quarter, But Locals Rake In More Yuans. Retrieved April 16, 2013, from Forbes : http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/04/15/chinas-economy-underperforms-in-first-quarter-but-locals-rake-in-more-yuans/

Reuters. (2013, April 3). Reuters. Retrieved May 6, 2013, from www.reuters.com: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/03/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBRE9320DA20130403

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