Zambian 2013 Budget Reviewed by Kampamba Shula

On 12 October 2012, the Minister of Finance, Hon. Alexander Bwalya Chikwanda, MP, announced the 2013 National Budget. Budget highlights and taxation and other changes as contained in the Budget speech and the Zambia Revenue Authority (“ZRA”) publication.

INDECO (IDC): Past Problems and Opportunities Analysed by Kampamba Shula

INDECO (IDC): Past Problems and Opportunities Analysed

Critical Review of IMF 2013 Zambia ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION report by Kampamba Shula

Debt management is still on track The agreed norm is that for internal borrowing the threshold is 25 per cent of GDP but our debt stands at K17 billion, which is 15 per cent of GDP and for external borrowing, the threshold is 40 per cent and our debt is US$3.1 billion which is 14 per cent of GDP, so we are far below the agreed norms. So even in the long term , Zambia is still on track.

US Economy 2014 First Quarter Analysis and Outlook by Kampamba Shula

New data shows the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, keeping pace with shifting expectations but down sharply from the prior already disappointing estimate.

Zambia Debt Analysis

Some might say that Zambia should not borrow externally and even as sincere as they may be they are wrong. When the Government borrows locally “Crowing out” happens.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Auditor General’s Report Analysis by Kampamba Shula

Auditor General’s Report Analysis

Intro

During the year 2013, the Office carried out one hundred and thirty eight (138) audits on the accounts for the financial year ended 31st December 2012. This is an analysis of relevant sections.
The major issues that have been highlighted across all the heads of expenditure and revenue collected are as shown in the table below.
Issue
2012
2011
2010
Unaccounted for Revenue
1,860,280,055
2,253,941,307
1,761,709,547
Unaccounted for Funds
3,624,275,679
5,054,209,802
3,823,553,675
Misapplication of Funds
38,738,763,261
23,685,562,199
220,628,818,731
Unretired Imprest
25,558,789,274
33,136,711,477
77,161,637,221
Unvouched Expenditure
553,142,715,946
77,014,932,341
74,793,881,735
Unaccounted for Stores
43,063,044,103
22,079,935,144
43,921,118,882




Irregular Payments
1,438,527,391
4,233,314,411
10,289,923,002
Non Recovery of Advances and Loans
7,195,232,766
3,479,476,312
10,098,900,307
Failure to Follow Procurement Procedures
121,438,503,116
4,674,317,060
2,540,559,305
Undelivered Materials
1,232,210,506
2,104,187,120
646,210,800
Non Submission of Expenditure Returns
107,765,375,773
27,083,333,334
3,090,848,292
Wasteful Expenditure
1,195,270,249
2,609,341,457
7,362,829,990
Overpayments
206,913,870
6,000,000
131,561,606
Misappropriation of Funds
463,631,579
1,060,362,947
1,096,257,658





Source: Auditor General’s Report 2012

These issues arise as a result of the failure to adhere to regulations and weaknesses in the implementation of internal control systems.

Revenue


Description
Actual Revenue
Income Tax (Other than mineral tax)
11,732,388,509,836
Medical Levy
24,487,279,427
Customs and Excise
3,680,555,710,400
Fuel Levy
613,804,508,639
Value Added Tax
4,721,273,708,622
Fines
19,744,120,468
Licences
297,789,051,570
Commissions
14,088,818,148
Fees of court or Office
278,780,165,970
Interest
549,400
Other Revenue
528,466,002,589
General Budget Support
536,346,731,135
Sector Budget Support
65,741,036,200
Total
22,513,466,192,404
Source: Auditor General’s Report 2012

Excess Expenditure

A review of Statement ‘C’ of the Financial Report for the year under review revealed that expenditure in excess of the provision voted by Parliament in respect of three (3) heads of expenditure amounted to K9,495,894,076 as tabulated below.

Ministry
Total Authorized
Provision
Actual
Expenditure
Excess
Expenditure
Ministry of Chiefs and Traditional Affairs
77,130,791,355
77,806,017,300
675,225,945
Drug Enforcement Commission
41,863,422,400
50,683,890,531
8,820,468,131
Zambia Intelligence Service
321,444,299,489
321,444,499,489
200,000
Total
440,438,513,244
449,934,407,320
9,495,894,076
Source: Auditor General’s Report 2012

This excess expenditure of K 9,495,894,076 will require approval by Parliament as provided for in Article 117 (5) of the Constitution. 

Tax

During the financial year ended 31st December 2012, a total amount of K20,772 billion was collected as tax and non-tax revenue against a total target of K20,154 billion resulting in a surplus of K617 billion.

License Fees

In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December 2012 amounts totaling K26,094,573,819 were collected resulting in an over collection of K3,637,160,669 as shown in the table below.
Revenue Type
Actual Collection
Mining licence
4,001,146,939
Surface Fees
553,719,733
Other Revenue
247,685,191
Water Board Fees
5,216,704,677
ERB Licence Fees
16,075,317,278
Total
26,094,573,819
Source: Auditor General’s Report


Ministry of Defense


In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December 2012, a total provision of K788,358,396,083 was made to cater for various activities under the Zambia Army against which amounts totaling K855,724,713,699 were released resulting in an over funding of K67,366,317,616 which was not supported by a supplementary provision.

Ministry of Education

In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December 2011 and the period ended 30th September 2012, a total provision of K405,321,502,209 (US$84,602,207) was made to cater for activities under the National Implementation Framework (NIF) II against which amounts totaling K353,692,560,418 (US$69,852,938) were released resulting in an underfunding of K51,628,941,791 (US$14,749,269) by various Cooperating Partners (CPs) and GRZ.

Ministry of Lands, Energy and Water

In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the Financial Year ended 31st December 2012, a total provision of K758,638,214,819 was made to cater for various activities under the Ministry.
During the period under review, the Ministry was split into the Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water and the Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection. The Ministry of Energy and Water after the split and for which a total provision of K665,447,498,564 was made and K187,823,389,111 released. The Ministry of Lands Natural Resources and Natural Protection after the split and for which a total provision of K109,424,660,361 was made and K69,404,903,943 released
In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the Financial Year ended 31st December 2012, a provision of K28,493,771,000 was made to cater for opening up of new areas for development. in various local authorities against which amounts totalling K25,839,421,228 were released resulting in an underfunding of K2,654,349,772.

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December 2012, a provision of K1,156,181,000,744 was made to cater for the purchase and distribution of inputs under the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) against which K1,155,861,071,547 was released resulting in an under funding of K319,929,197. As at 31st December 2012, a total amount of K1,139,624,512,924 had been spent leaving a balance of K16,236,558,623.
In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December, 2012, a provision of K96,440,628,594 was made to cater for various activities at the DACOs and PACOs against which amounts totalling K100,138,048,659 were released.

Constitutional and Statutory Expenditure – Ministry of Finance

Head 99 comprises funds for servicing external and internal debt, contingency and other expenditure and is controlled by the Secretary to the Treasury at the Ministry of Finance.

Management Information System

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has been using the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development‟s (UNCTAD) Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) since 1986. This is a specialised debt management and financial analysis software designed to help countries manage external and domestic public debt, including securities. The Investment and Debt Management (IDM) Department is charged with the core function of management of public debt, supervision and monitoring of Government investments. IDM has five units; External Debt, Domestic Debt, Government Investments, Accounting and a Data Debt Unit. The DMFAS database is maintained by the Debt Data Unit and contains only public external debt. The other units of IDM have no access to the system. In the Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the financial year ended 31st December 2012, a total provision of K3,934,159,822,511 was made to cater for various activities against which a total amount of K3,102,063,287,369 was released resulting in an under funding of K832,096,535,142.
The Ministry of Finance did not provide reports clearly showing the debt stock for Pre HIPC and Post HIPC position of the Country.

Position of Public Debt

The position of domestic and external debt as at 31st December 2012 was as shown in the table below:
TYPE
Opening Balance as at 1st
January 2012
Amount Borrowed
During the
year 2012
Amount Repaid
During the
year 2012
Closing Balance as at 31st
December 2012
Domestic Debt
13,825,383,063,019
11,241,865,743,600
9,710,182,629,280
15,357,066,177,338
External Debt
7,656,868,272,984
8,927,980,854,463
1,153,182,535,027
15,431,666,592,420
Total
21,482,311,336,003
20,169,846,598,063
10,863,365,164,308
30,788,792,769,758
Source: Auditors General Report

As can be seen from the table above, total public debt increased from K21,482,311,336,003 as at 31st December 2011 to K30,788,792,769,758 as at 31st December 2012 representing an increase of 43%. The increase in the debt levels was attributed to new borrowings made in 2012.

Loans

Records in respect of loans in amounts totalling US$123,446,502 as shown in the table below, revealed that the Government has not been consistent in servicing the loans from Brazil, Iraq and China. Loans from Brazil were last serviced in June 2001, from Iraq in July 1984 and those from China have never been serviced and interest has since accumulated to US$44,906,325 as shown in the table below.
CREDITOR NAME
ARREARS
PRINCIPAL
US$
ARREARS
INTEREST
US$
OUTSTANDING INCL
ARREARS TOTAL
US$
BANCO DE BRASIL
32,250,842.36
34,886,132.57
67,136,974.93
GOVT OF CHINA
19,221,513

19,221,512.84
GOVT OF IRAQ
27,067,822
10,020,192.43
37,088,014.28
Total
78,540,177
44,906,325
123,446,502.05
Source: Auditor General’s Report


Debt owed to Brazil
The Government of Zambia and the Federal Government of Brazil have agreed that the outstanding debt of US $67. 1 million owed to Brazil will be treated through the special bilateral arrangement. Under this arrangement, 80 percent will be cancelled while 20 percent will be repaid on terms of the agreement to be signed between the two parties. The debt relief agreement between Zambia and Brazil is expected to be signed in December 2014.

Debt owed to Iraq
The Government of Zambia and the Government of Iraq have agreed to settle the outstanding debt of $37 million under the Paris Club VIII debt write-off framework. Under this arrangement, Iraq will cancel 90 percent of the outstanding debt stock, while the remaining 10 percent will be repaid on terms of the agreement to be signed between the two parties.

Debt owed to China
In 2011, the Government of China, through a protocol, delivered partial debt relief by cancelling the outstanding amounting of RMB Yuan 247 million which represented 50 percent of the debt forgiveness from China. The Government of Zambia has commenced negotiations with Government of China on the cancellation of the remaining 50 percent of the outstanding debt. It is expected that the negotiations will be completed by the end of this year and a debt relief agreement signed in 2015. Total outstanding debt to China stood at US $19. 2 million as at end of 2012.

Conclusion
Looking back to the end of 2013, preliminary estimates indicate that the total debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 28%. Of this, external debt stood at US $3.1 billion [approximately K17 billion] or 13.7% of GDP, whilst domestic debt stood at K17.6 billion or approximately 14% of GDP. Debt service (principal and interest payments) stood at K11 billion or 1.2% of GDP (and approximately 6% of domestic revenue). In this regard, external and domestic debt levels are below the international thresholds of 40% and 25%, respectively.
The Debt situation has deteriorated, but is still inline with 2030 vision goals. This does not mean that our current scenario should be promoted.The overall sentiment in the Auditor General's report is riddled with lack of Internal controls, with the other biggest problems in 2012 being Non Submission of Expenditure Returns, Failure to Follow Procurement Procedures,Irregular payments 
and  Unvouched expendititure.