The Tokota Theorem – A Sociological and Economic Approach to Youth Crime

It is Russian Novelist, Fyodor Dostoevsky, who once said “The degree of civilization in a society is judged by entering its prisons”. Following this rationale my latest paper operates on the assertion that the state of youth in a nation is reflected by youth in prison. A nation’s youth in prison constitutes those who are deviantly criminal and those who are criminally deviant. Deviant is not necessarily criminal, but sometimes it is. This paper is directed at youth crime and applies a sociological and mathematical approach of “deviant utility” using an interpretive sociological model based on constructs by Weber’s (1978) interpretive sociology, Durkheim’s (1982) social fact and consciousness, Lombroso’s (1876) Criminal man and a mathematical theorem based off Becker’s (1974) “Crime and Punishment: An Economic approach”. 

This Tokota Theorem draws on the notion of the born criminal with assertion that many might find disturbing, we are all criminals. Every man, however pure and honest he may be, is conscious now and then of a transitory notion of some dishonest or criminal action. But with the honest man, exactly because he is physically and morally normal, this notion of crime, which simultaneously summons up the idea of its grievous consequences, glances off the surface of the normal conscience, and is a mere flash without the thunder. With the man who is less normal and has less forethought, the notion dwells, resists the weak repulsion of a not too vigorous moral sense, and finally prevails; for, as Victor Hugo says, “Face to face with duty, to hesitate is to be lost.” 

This model for the “Tokota Theorem” is based on sociological constructs of the degree of socialization which we have incorporated with a mathematical model to explain deviance bordering on criminality to inform proper diagnosis and prescribe proper solutions in the policy space. According to Reckless & Dinitz (1968) there is a need for the development of an effective self-concept measure which can assess the direction toward or away from delinquency or deviant behavior generally. There is need also to develop measures of other self-factors which control directionality. When such factors are uncovered and when they are effectively measured, then it should be possible to chart workable programs to prevent delinquency and to re-enforce the components of self which enable the youth to be an effective conformer. Our model specifically differs from Becker’s (1974) model by our inclusion of born criminals, socialization and awareness of social opportunity as sociological research has shown that such factors affect the degree of criminal deviance. 

This paper recommends a proactive approach to manage crime with broad recommendations to increase funding to the Zambia correctional system. The most eccentric recommendation from this paper is that to reduce youth gangs and youth crimes in peri-urban communities the Zambia Correctional system in collaboration with other stakeholders should set up reformation centres in these areas and prevent crime before it actually takes place by giving youth different aveunes for socialisation, recreation, awarness of social mobility and strong social identity. The rationale for this is not based on any moral or altruitistic sentiments but from the rational model of reducing the derived utility from deviance. 

To make sure the “Tokota Theorem” is not a mere academic exercise it will form part of an active advocacy tool kit which will be presented by the author to parliamentary committees in Zambia hopefully aiming to change the narrative of how crime is proactively handled in the country. Afterall, was it not Karl Marx who famously said in his “Eleventh Thesis on Feuerbach” that "Philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various ways; the point however, is to change it". 

You can download the paper the link below.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327537100_The_Tokota_Theorem_-_A_Sociological_and_Economic_Approach_to_Youth_Crime

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kampamba_Shula3/publication/327537100_The_Tokota_Theorem_-_A_Sociological_and_Economic_Approach_to_Youth_Crime/links/5b979666458515310578363b/The-Tokota-Theorem-A-Sociological-and-Economic-Approach-to-Youth-Crime.pdf?origin=publication_detail

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The John Mwanza Formula – Comparative static analysis of tax revenue, compliance and evasion in Zambia by Kampamba Shula

The Private Sector in Zambia and the Government have for a long time been at loggerheads with regards to tax rates and revenue. Government wants more revenue which usually tends to support suggestions for increasing tax rates. This tendency can best be explained by the “Law of the instrument” a phrase from Abraham Maslow’s The Psychology of Science, published in 1966 which says “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. The Private sector on the other hand have been searching and looking for ways to convince Government to reduce tax rates and stimulate growth which will lead to higher revenue. The Private sector has recently stressed the effects of tax evasion on Tax revenue loss. This apparent catch 22 motivated a more critical look at the factors affecting tax revenue in Zambia.

In this paper I proposes how tax rate cuts can increase revenues by improving tax compliance whilst reducing tax evasion especially in a substantially informal economy like Zambia. In this paper, a theoretical model of tax evasion, inspired by Gary S Becker’s Crime and Punishment: An Economic approach, is briefly presented. A renewed mathematical approach called the “John Mwanza “ Formula is introduced extending into comparative static analysis discussing tax evasion, compliance, complexity and even tax audit probability all in the vein of formulating a model that can at the margin gives us a clearer structure of the rather daunting task of increasing tax revenue whilst lowering tax rates.

You can download the working paper below.

http://www.zambiachamber.org/?p=486

Download via Academia.edu

Download via Research Gate

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Rebasing GDP: The Bossano Example

In the 2019 budget announced by the Hon Mwanakatwe, she announced that Government will rebase the GDP in 2019. Now I could explain rebasing relates to the nominal and real GDP of a country which would honestly be unnecessary fancy English so let me just use a normal example.

Imagine a household far away in a land called Chambia (I know, I couldn’t resist) lives a man called Bossano, who has a very big house and in this house he has family, extended family and some foreign tenants who stay with him. Most of tenants and extended family do some work of some sort and earn a living except the young ones not yet of age. But when they do become of age and begin working, he taxes them a ration for part of the money spent on taking them to school, hope you get the drift. Now everyone in this house has to pay Bossano a ration, which he uses to take some children to school, keeps the lights on (Zesco),water, food, plus he has to pay some workers who grow crops for him and his household (FISP/FRA) and other expenses .etc.

Now Bossano has a lot of pressure so he borrows heavily from two guys Euro Banda (Euro Bond) and Choncholi getting into major debt. He uses this debt for many things like building a house for rent and other investments that take time to give a return. Bossano's total ration collection can be considered Government tax collection and the total money his household makes including extended family and tenants can be considered as GDP (gross product...everything put together).

Here is the catch, Bossano needs some loan support and some guy by the name “IMFwiti” is a major don in this imaginary land and he gives loans to people on certain conditions. Everyone respects IMFwiti, and the standard way that he measures someone’s ability to sustainably pay debt. The International standard (Threshold) for measuring debt according to IMFwiti is to calculate the debt and divide it by the total amount his HOUSEHOLD makes, NOT his rations, please note the difference. Now IMFwiti and Choncholi don’t really vibe together and he and Bossano have an argument (That is story we won’t get into here) but they still trying to work things out after all IMFwiti is still a Global don.

Now let’s get back to Bossano and explain this rebasing. Over time the money that Bossano’s household makes is adjusted for prices or in Bossano's case this means to include extended family members who never made any money some time back but are making some now. This recalculation is given a fancy term in economics and is called rebasing. Basically it means Bossano after sometime usually calculates how much his extended family make because he doesn't really count how much they make properly often. You might rightly ask why Bossano doesn’t calculate how much his household makes properly. The answer to this is because some of his extended family are in formal employment with salaries (formal sector) which is easy to count whilst others (Most of them in fact) are tamanga guys (informal sector) who hustle on the street, they make money too it just doesn’t appear on a pay slip if you know what I mean, which makes it difficult to estimate how much they make. Plus over time the things his household produces (especially the informal guys) change so he has to take this into consideration.

So when the Zambian Government rebases GDP in 2019 it will be the same as Bossano recalculating how much the earnings of this total household have changed with time (Properly estimating how much informal guys are making), taking into account the prices of the things his household makes. The base in “rebase” refers to a year when changes in household earnings are being calculated. So basically rebasing is changing or updating the year from which Bossano calculates total household earnings.

You probably wondering if developed countries rebase their GDP, the answer is basically, no. It is what you would call mainly an Africa Problem. Ghana did it, Nigeria did it and now Zambia is doing it for the second time having done it in 2014. The economic size of the country is not fully reflected in nominal GDP. Two arguments to support that GDP is understated. One is that informality in the economy is high and part of the economy is not documented, hence that pie is missing from officially reported GDP. The other argument is that there are new services coming into the urban centers and old computation techniques based on existing GDP base are not fully reflecting the modernization of economy; hence urban contribution to GDP is undervalued.

Now if you remember, I explained that everyone respects IMFwiti (who is obviously IMF), and the standard way that IMF measures a country’s ability to sustainably pay debt. The International standard (Threshold) for measuring debt according to IMF is to calculate the debt and divide it by the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), NOT tax collections (rations), please note the difference. Hence when a country rebases its GDP it technically reduces the debt to GDP ratio (in a math fraction if you increase the denominator, the total number reduces .e.g. 3/7 is greater than 3/20). Rebasing GDP is the same as inflating GDP for accuracy. Its normal in African Countries, the only strange thing is Zambia will be rebasing after just five years i.e. last rebase was 2014. This means Bossano is either not measuring the informal sector well or he may have an incentive to inflate the GDP numbers to understate debt, current account and fiscal deficits.

Either way I think it’s the smart move, but you can make your own conclusions. I’m just a guy with round glasses, you don’t have to take my word for it. 

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